Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.113374 28.895795 32.062724 35.984359 40.783819 46.569842 54.243571
2025-02-16 22.290132 25.873902 30.319220 36.420940 44.907860 56.892433 76.459149
2025-02-23 19.515057 23.388637 28.487276 36.039075 47.681327 66.628556 105.107650
2025-03-02 17.702626 21.748361 27.330428 36.141368 51.038305 78.950458 152.262721
2025-03-09 16.231742 20.312638 26.148317 35.835858 53.538700 91.336891 224.038030
2025-03-16 15.050381 19.111226 25.087579 35.433221 55.669661 104.637954 348.520325
2025-03-23 14.090400 18.110173 24.170658 35.048898 57.678262 119.642951 609.766597
2025-03-30 13.319539 17.304082 23.442844 34.834577 59.973524 138.339032 1448.283040
2025-04-06 12.543971 16.418554 22.479217 33.997465 60.555365 152.477034 5270.104476
2025-04-13 12.308540 16.335722 22.817604 35.716550 68.216066 211.038007 NaN
2025-04-20 11.764423 15.721449 22.182206 35.346760 70.140139 247.412645 NaN
2025-04-27 11.364159 15.305449 21.846477 35.546098 73.904383 313.145977 NaN
2025-05-04 11.013754 14.952412 21.600212 35.932617 78.691248 425.522000 NaN
2025-05-11 10.655857 14.563235 21.252430 36.036788 82.720323 587.143258 NaN
2025-05-18 10.253349 14.075224 20.680274 35.526461 84.309183 756.981376 NaN
2025-05-25 9.950713 13.736467 20.358423 35.569574 88.277984 1185.196919 NaN
2025-06-01 9.631309 13.351067 19.916541 35.248672 90.637447 1878.752125 NaN
2025-06-08 9.327699 12.976769 19.468012 34.847359 92.533194 3372.658217 NaN
2025-06-15 9.048698 12.631028 19.050491 34.469630 94.459607 8709.445262 NaN
2025-06-22 8.806212 12.336816 18.713617 34.259559 97.259804 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.519597 11.953526 18.176555 33.444662 96.434361 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.487936 12.013594 18.527416 35.115999 111.456073 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.271787 11.737332 18.176240 34.756426 113.707539 NaN NaN